Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-04 11.174262 12.810909 14.576996 16.621052 18.918172 21.416376 24.335323
2025-05-11 8.567505 10.734694 13.258798 16.402209 20.197321 24.615832 30.133119
2025-05-18 7.307524 9.694492 12.613335 16.419871 21.224707 27.057328 34.639143
2025-05-25 6.414966 8.957599 12.204620 16.614853 22.402191 29.685739 39.485631
2025-06-01 5.658902 8.268147 11.729831 16.601323 23.212233 31.793817 43.683942
2025-06-08 4.993616 7.611611 11.210285 16.442870 23.765330 33.541595 47.450436
2025-06-15 4.535210 7.184854 10.946098 16.578495 24.679978 35.769876 51.921014
2025-06-22 4.245695 6.967167 10.944878 17.061794 26.079557 38.701582 57.469315
2025-06-29 3.818288 6.493384 10.520288 16.880075 26.488932 40.238435 61.105355
2025-07-06 3.294128 5.813017 9.721870 16.066193 25.894534 40.276205 62.557797
2025-07-13 3.111179 5.662383 9.722805 16.463707 27.123468 43.009805 68.039981
2025-07-20 2.928193 5.492209 9.674484 16.770851 28.216820 45.576145 73.369088
2025-07-27 2.673167 5.179891 9.378400 16.670950 28.684093 47.245563 77.471461
2025-08-03 2.418380 4.842989 9.013585 16.429256 28.904443 48.538263 81.050092
2025-08-10 2.237371 4.620114 8.821317 16.454698 29.546331 50.500606 85.732488
2025-08-17 2.100314 4.465115 8.733207 16.647322 30.467651 52.938406 91.259090
2025-08-24 1.945565 4.260351 8.538225 16.634718 31.032089 54.811605 95.940874
2025-08-31 1.785325 4.028346 8.273713 16.475652 31.326989 56.242669 99.944876
2025-09-07 1.678433 3.893057 8.177436 16.611633 32.136935 58.554566 105.480825
2025-09-14 1.622447 3.857701 8.267654 17.095755 33.585631 61.998639 113.036358
2025-09-21 1.493414 3.654247 8.014863 16.913726 33.816149 63.359119 117.104538
2025-09-28 1.308584 3.309554 7.453653 16.098383 32.833181 62.560110 117.420463
2025-10-05 1.263150 3.272195 7.511788 16.496610 34.128423 65.812802 124.885386